![]() ![]() ![]() In Proceedings of the APSA Annual meeting Seattle, September 1-4 2011. Presidential Election: What Can We Learn from a State Level Political Economy Model. Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2014 Update retrieved from: Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update. The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update. Stanford: Stanford University Press.įair, R.C. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things. ![]() Review of Economics and Statistics, 60, 159-173.įair, R. The effect of economic events on votes for president. Obama’s Re-election Prospects Under ‘Bread and Peace’ Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election.retrieved from: įair, R. ![]() In Proceedings of the World Congress of the Systems Sciences and ISSS International Society for the Systems Sciences, 44th Annual Meeting, July 16–20, Toronto, Canada.Ĭuzán, A. Fiscal policy, economic conditions, and terms in office: simulating presidential election outcomes. Where can I find the unemployment rate for previous years?retrieved from: īureau of Economic Analysis. How the Government Measures Unemployment retrieved from: īureau of Labor Statistics. PS: Political Science and Politics, 21 4, 843-847īureau of Labor Statistics. An Improved Model for Predicting the Outcomes of Presidential Elections. Hence, the models built in the paper signal a comfortable margin of victory for the Presidential nominee of the incumbent party, Hillary Clinton.The study re-establishes the notion that the non-economic factors have a greater influence on the outcomes of election as compared to the economic factors, as some of the important economic factors such as inflation and unemployment rate failed to establish their significance.Ībramowitz A. Donald Trump to be 39.51% with a standard error of ☓.87%. Hillary Clinton to be 45.59% with a standard error of ☒.32% and that of Republican candidate Mr. The forecast is calculated by running a regression of the significant factors, obtained through factor analysis technique, on the incumbent party vote share as well as on the non-incumbent party vote share. The proposed models forecast the vote share of Democrat candidate Mrs. The major economic factor significant in 2016 US presidential election is the growth of the economy, and the ‘anti-incumbency factor that signifies how long the incumbent party has been controlling the White House is found to be an important non-economic factor likely to play a dominant role in the election. The dependent variables considered are the vote shares of the nominees of the incumbent and the non-incumbent majority party candidates. presidential election 2016 using factor analysis, which groups the various economic and non-economic parameters based on the correlation among them. When comparable data are available, this measure combines the change in Republican support and the change in Democratic support from the previous election.The paper categorizes factors responsible for forecasting the outcome of U.S. Population scaling is representative of the number of voters in each category. Independent or third-party candidates are not shown. Race and sex were determined by interviewers in surveys before 1984. In 2012, 20, the exit poll was conducted by Edison/Mitofsky in 19 by Voter News Services in 1992 by Voter Research and Surveys and in earlier years by The New York Times and CBS News.ĭirect comparisons from year to year should factor in differences in how questions were asked. The voter survey is based on questionnaires completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day including 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters. Data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBSNews, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. ![]()
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